effectivelywildfandomcom-20200215-history
Episode 588: The Emails That the Winter Meetings Didn’t Want You to Hear
Date December 17, 2014 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener emails about baseball aesthetics, baseball myths, and trades involving only big leaguers, then discuss the Dodgers’ Brett Anderson signing. Topics * Brett Gardner and best players without MVP votes or All-Star appearances * Team offseason plans and philosophy changes * Trades with only major league players * Episode 587 follow-up: Link between multiple draft picks and free agent signings * Team saves leaderboard quiz * Baseball myths * Baseball aesthetics and results of sabermetric strategy * Brett Anderson signing Intro Nazz, "Letter's Don't Count" Banter * Grant Brisbee's article about the winter meetings and journalism scoops. * Non-revelatory rumors: Sam thinks that writers are trying to respect sources that are off the record and get information out there without saying too much. * Jeb Bush's possible non-revelatory tweet about a presidential campaign. Email Questions * Clark: "Should Brett Gardner be considered in the 'best player never to play in an All-Star game or receive a MVP vote' discussion? He's only 2 WAR behind Nick Markakis, 25.2 to 23.2 at Baseball Reference. In six years of service time compared to Markakis' nine. Since 2010 Markakis has accumulated just 8.3 WAR, Gardner put up 4 WAR seasons in both 2013 and 2014. They are the same age, Markakis' neck problems may allow Gardner to pass him in career WAR this year. Maybe you've discussed Gardner and I just forgot." * Luis: "With so many surprising moves this offseason I've noticed a spike in "what X team is doing" articles and comments. What the A's are doing, trading Donaldson. What the Red Sox are doing, filling their rotation with ground ball pitchers. What the White Sox are doing, or the Cubs or the Dodgers. What do you think of the concept? Off the top of my head I think doing something involves major payroll change, major personnel change, and apparent changes in a team's philosophy, but I'm sure you can come up with more components. So what does it take for a team to be 'doing something' in the eyes of the baseball community?" * Eric: "There has been a large increase in Major League player for Major League player trades, notably starting with Lester and Cespedes in July. It's easy enough to analyze all player for prospect trades on a Macro level of one team is going for it next year the other is not. Are the player for player trades naturally more interesting and pleasing because they require some thought of how they impact two ostensibly contending teams?" * Graham: "On the last episode Sam mentioned that teams with more than one first round draft pick were more likely to sign free agents with a draft pick penalty and he concluded that this was because they undervalued the draft pick. I have an alternative take. Could it not be because they have, by virtue of being awarded a compensatory draft pick, lost a good free agent of their own and therefore have a hole on their roster? As a Giants fan I'm thinking of them here because they lost Pablo Sandoval they may think they have to go out and sign a star (Scherzer or Shields) to appease the fans. OK it's a pitcher replacing a third baseman but it shows the team's intent." * John: "Are there any baseball myths that you still hang on to despite evidence to the contrary? For example, and perhaps I'm answering my own question but there are plenty of others, the myth of lineup protection which I no longer believe in because the evidence has convinced me but maybe one of you wants to hang on to the idea that it matters. If you have myths that you still believe in would you classify them as 'I'm not convinced that the evidence proves or disproves that particular point' or as 'despite the overwhelming evidence I'm going to hold on to my belief until you pry it out of my cold dead hands' or perhaps you'd readily accept when empirical evidence comes along to your satisfaction." * Robert: "We talk a fair amount about how various tactical decisions impact how we enjoy the game. Increased pursuit of strikeouts by pitchers and home runs by hitters, bunting, defensive shifts, bullpen usage, etc. While the efficacy of strategic approaches at the front office level is a favorite topic, baseball writers don't talk so much about the aesthetic effects of these decisions. Do you prefer seasons with a few great teams or a larger number of flawed contenders? Would you rather watch teams with a wider or narrower variance around their expected outcomes in a season? And does your answer change depending on the mean of that distribution? Given the choice between a long run of season with likely strong but not elite performance and a big push for contention in one season at the cost of future performance, which would you choose? What's more satisfying, acquiring major league talent over the winter or at the trading deadline?" Play Index * Sam used the Play Index to look up all time save leaderboards for various teams. He quizzes Ben on players who are between the 20th and 10th all time on franchise save leaderboards. Sam provides the player name and Ben has to guess the team. * Players mentioned are: Octavio Dotel, Mike Stanton, Randy Choate, Danys Báez, Frank Francisco, Jonathan Broxton, Jose Mesa, Jorge Julio, Lee Smith, Ugueth Urbina, and Francisco Cordero. Notes * Sam thinks that the motives are not always so obvious in trades where only major league players are involved, but that it is easier to evaluate which players are better. * Sam, while trying to guess what teams Octavio Dotel did not have a save for, "I can't go on, I can't go on, I have to quit." * Sam's family believed that if you blew out a team (at least 10 run win or a 9-0 win) you would lose the next day. * Brett Anderson signed a 1 year, $10 million contract with the Dodgers. Ben was surprised that he got that much. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 588: The Emails That the Winter Meetings Didn’t Want You to Hear * Rumors, rumors, everywhere, nor any drop to drink by Grant Brisbee Category:Email Episodes Category:Episodes Category:Non-Revelatory Rumors